If the trade scale continues as it has in recent months, the country’s total import-export turnover in 2025 could reach a record high of 900 billion USD.
3 Consecutive Months of Over 80 Billion USD per Month
According to the statistics released by the General Department of Customs, in September, the country’s import-export turnover reached 82.49 billion USD.
Of this, exports totaled 42.67 billion USD, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous month. Despite this slight decline, export turnover remained above 40 billion USD per month and saw a growth of 24.77% compared to the same period last year.
In September alone, there were 10 product categories with turnover exceeding 1 billion USD. Leading the way were computers, electronic products, and components with 10.59 billion USD, up 4.3% from the previous month.
Machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts came second with 5.6 billion USD, up 8.1%, while phones and components ranked third with 5.4 billion USD, a decrease of 5.6%.
The subsequent categories included textiles with 3.26 billion USD (down 15.6%), footwear with 1.7 billion USD (down 14.4%), transportation vehicles and spare parts with 1.38 billion USD (down 6.7%), wood and wood products with 1.36 billion USD (down 6.9%), fruits and vegetables with 1.31 billion USD (up 38%), toys, sports equipment, and parts with 1.06 billion USD (down 1.5%), and seafood with 1.01 billion USD (down 5.6%).
On the import side, imports in September reached 39.82 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous month and up 24.83% compared to the same period in 2024.
There were 5 product categories with turnover exceeding 1 billion USD, including: computers, electronic products and components; machinery, equipment, tools, spare parts; textiles; phones and components; and plastic raw materials.
Thus, September marked the third consecutive month that the country’s import-export turnover exceeded the impressive 80 billion USD per month.
Previously, July reached 82.29 billion USD and August reached 83.06 billion USD—the highest result so far this year.
900 Billion USD in Sight
By the end of September, the total import-export turnover reached 680.66 billion USD, an increase of 17.66% compared to the same period in 2024.
Of this, exports reached 348.74 billion USD, up 16% compared to last year; imports reached 331.92 billion USD, up 18.8%. The trade balance for the first 9 months had a surplus of 16.82 billion USD.
Notably, even though it is only the end of September, the total import-export turnover of the country has already nearly reached the entire figure for 2023 (which was 681 billion USD).
On average over the past 9 months, the monthly import-export turnover was 75.63 billion USD. If this average is maintained in the remaining 3 months of 2025, the total import-export turnover will exceed 907 billion USD by the end of the year—a record high.
In an even more optimistic scenario, if the turnover in Q4 remains at 80 billion USD or higher per month, as it did in Q3, 2025 could end with a milestone of 920 billion USD.
In a third, highly optimistic scenario, if the turnover continues to increase by 17.66% compared to 2024 as it did in the first 9 months, the total import-export turnover in 2025 will increase by about 139 billion USD, reaching over 925 billion USD by the end of the year.
All three of these scenarios are quite feasible because, historically, the import-export turnover has tended to increase sharply in the last months of the year due to numerous holidays and festivals, which drive up both domestic and global consumption.
For example, in Q3, the country’s import-export turnover reached 247.84 billion USD, accounting for 36.41% of the total turnover for the first 9 months.
On average, in Q3, the turnover was more than 82.61 billion USD per month. This is over 10 billion USD per month higher than the average for the first 6 months (72.14 billion USD per month).
Similarly, in 2024, after the first 6 months, the total import-export turnover reached 369.92 billion USD, accounting for 47% of the annual turnover (786.29 billion USD for the year).
In Q3 of 2024, the import-export turnover also surged to 208.57 billion USD, accounting for 36% of the 9-month turnover of 2024—this proportion is quite similar to the 2025 projection as analyzed above.
In previous years, the first half of the year typically accounted for about 46-47% of the annual turnover.
Additionally, the major product categories and key export-import markets of the country are showing strong double-digit growth.
The above examples show that the 900 billion USD milestone in 2025 is completely within reach.
Source: HaiQuanOnline